April 19, the National Development and Reform Commission said that in 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Bureau of Statistics will continue to carry out the work of the national crude steel production suppression, to ensure that the realization of the national crude steel production year-on-year decline. Crude steel production reduction has once again become a market hotspot, the author of the crude steel supply side of the situation to do a brief comment.

Ukwenza isitimela esikhulu kwangonyaka we-2021 kwakwenzeka phambili futhi kwakwesekelwe emuva endaweni.

1.035 billion tons - 2021 ukuphuma kwesitili esingama-1.035 billion tons, esiphelile ngama-2.8% ngo-2020, futhi ukuphuma kwesitili kwaphansiwa ngama-30 million tons.

Ukuphuma kwecrude steel kwesi sikhathi esilandelayo sase 2022 kwahlanganisa ngeqembu elidlule.

Izinyanga zokugcina zomnotho wasekhaya kulo nyaka, ekuboniseni okwengqondo, iFederal Reserve ibuye yashintsha i-cyle yokuthengisa imali, i-Russia-Ukrainian conflict, ukuthuthukiswa kwezinto ezithuthukisiwe ngamathuluzi okuthengiswa, njll., i-environment yasezindaweni ikhona izinkinga zokukhula kwemvelo, izifo zokuphatha, izidingo zezinkampani zokuthi "triple pressure" kanye nokukhuthaza kwezifo zokuphefumula kwe-Crown Pneumonia. Amagama, iNombolo Yezemidlalo Yezwe yayifakazela i-PMI yomhlaba kaMarch (Purchasing Managers' Index) kwaba 49.5%, kushintshwe ngamasentimitha angu-0.7, kushintshwe ekuphuthumayo ngokuthi kwezinyanga ezintathu. Ngesimo esisodwa, kwakukhishwa ukugcina okukhula okwakuthandwayo ngamaphuzu amaningi nguNdlu Yezwe. NgoMashi 29, iNdlu Yezwe yayenza kube lula ukuthi ukugcina okukhula kuzothathwa ekuboniseni okuphezulu, futhi yayiqinisekisa ukuthi izinkampani zokuphatha zizokwenza imali yokugcina okuhambisana, futhi ukuthuthukisa izinkinga zezinkampani zokuthi zizwe ngokuthuthukisa okukhula okwesibili.

Izinyanga ezintathu zokuqala zika-2022, ukuphatha kwesibonelo esisodwa kwesinye isimo esikude kwezwe kulo nyaka, kwezinyanga zika-January ~ March kungaba yini ukuthi kuzoba khona izwi elithile mayelana nokulancisha isakhiwo esisha se-steel, futhi ngo-Apreli 19 isitatimende sasendaweni sakho sokuphatha isimo sezokwakha se-steel kulo nyaka wonke. Izidata ze-Bhurea yezokuqala zibonisa ukuthi ngo-Mashi 2022, ukwakhiwa kwesakhiwo se-steel saChina kwaba ngu-88.3 imitha, kushaywe ngu-6.4% ngoMnyango odlule; ukwakhiwa kwesakhiwo se-pig iron kwaba ngu-71.6 imitha, ishaye ngu-6.2% ngoMnyango odlule; ukwakhiwa kwesakhiwo se-steel kwaba ngu-116.89 imitha, ishaye ngu-3.2% ngoMnyango odlule. 2022 January ~ March, ukwakhiwa kwesakhiwo se-steel sezwe kwaba ngu-243.38 imitha, ishaye ngu-10.5%.

　　The decline in crude steel production in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2021 mainly stems from the following three points: First, crude steel production in 2021 showed a trend of high before and low after, and the production restriction mainly occurred in the second half of 2021, resulting in a high base in the beginning of 2021; secondly, February this year coincided with the period of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the neighboring areas took different degrees of production suspension and restriction measures; thirdly, the recurrence of epidemics led to the obstruction of logistics and transportation, especially some of the steel production and logistics industries, and the production of steel and steel was down by 3.3%. Especially part of the steel production and logistics industry focus on the region's regional control further led to the decline in crude steel production. It can be seen that the short-term pressure to reduce production is still available, the need for regulatory intervention is not great. In the medium and long term, with the gradual easing of the domestic epidemic, the 2nd and 3rd quarter crude steel production is likely to continue to rebound. If the 2nd and 3rd quarter average monthly production more than March production, then in order to achieve the annual crude steel production year-on-year decline in the target, the 4th quarter of the pressure to reduce production will come to the fore, superimposed on the environmental protection pressure of the heating season, when the regulatory layer or will be crude steel production direct intervention, but the introduction and implementation of policy will be relatively mild.

Kusukela kwi-imeko yonyaka, ukwenza isitimu esikhumba ngoLwesibili waleli linyanga kuyadinga kakhulu kwezinye izinyanga zonyaka odlule, kodwa kusukela kwi-imeko yezinyanga, kungatholakala izimpendulo ezithile. Izidata yezoPhiko lezokuPhiko zithola ukuthi ngoMashi 2022, ukwenza isitimu esikhumba esikwazi ukufika ku-2,848,400 tons ngosuku, ukwenza isitimu sepig iron esikwazi ukufika ku-2,309,700 tons ngosuku, futhi ukwenza isitimu saseSteel esikwazi ukufika ku-3,770,600 tons ngosuku. Ukwenza isitimu esikhumba ngosuku ngoMashi kwakungatholakala kuhambisana nalesi sikhathi sonyaka odlule, kodwa kuyadingeka kuyoba kuhamba phambili kwezikhathi ezinhle kakhulu kusukela ngoJulay 2021, okuyinto ikhombisa ukuthi ukwenza kwamabhizinisi esikhumbeni kuyisikhathi esiphakeme.

　　According to the above, the author of this year's regulatory layer to reduce crude steel production task to do the following interpretation: First, in the epidemic disturbances, logistics and transportation blocked, steel mills raw material inventory is insufficient in the background, the current steel production is only a mild rebound, the regulatory layer directly intervene in the necessity of not much; Second, according to the research data statistics, on April 20, Tangshan City, Hebei Province, the average billet gross profit of 16 yuan / ton, the average electric arc furnace profit of 29 yuan / ton. Electric arc furnace average profit of 29 yuan / ton, steel mills take the initiative to significantly increase production willingness is not strong; Third, at present, the average daily crude steel production of 2,848,400 tons, a decline of 6.09% compared with the same period last year, lower than last year's maximum value of 12.67%, basically flat at last year's average (2,825,400 tons), that is, this year's pressure to reduce the production of significantly less than last year; Fourth, experienced last year's crude steel production and price of Big ups and downs, the introduction and implementation of this year's policy will be more moderate, and the current production rhythm of enterprises also left the implementation of flexibility.

Kwenzakalani, ukuphansi kwamandla okuthuthukiswa kwamanye amazwe, futhi i-epidemiki ikhombisa okukhulu kwesikhathi sokuphela, isayithi njengoba yonke imakethe ishicilela imodeli enembile yezinhlelo nokufaka. Ngokwezinsuku eziningana kanye nangemva, ukuze kufikelekelekele i-target ye-5.5% ye-ukuthuthukiswa kwamanye amazwe, izinhlelo zokwenza kube nokuthuthukiswa kuzoba kusheshisa, futhi uma i-epidemiki yasekhaya isebenzisa, i-industri yezemvelo ibuyele kanye nokusiza kwamathuba, kuyacelwa ukuthi kufikelekelekele ukuthi kufanele kube nokuphucuka okukhulu. Ngokwesibonelo, ngicabanga ukuthi ukuphansi kwamandla kwesitili ekupheleni kwezikhathi ezifushane kancane ekuthuthukiseni kwamakethe. Uma ukuphansi kwesitili kwenzeka kahle kanye nangemva, okwamanje kwezinhlelo zokuphansi kwesitili, izindlela zesitili zingalindeleka ukuthi zibe nokuthuthukiswa okushesha kanye nokukhulu. Kusukela ekuboniseni kwesinye sezinyanga, isicelo sokuthuthukiswa kwesitili njengoba yonke kuzoba kuhle kakhulu kwi-steel, ukuthuthukiswa okukhulu kwezinye izinkulumo, kufanele kube nokuphansi okuncane.