19-aprel, Milli İnkişaf və Tənzimləmə Komissiyası 2022-ci ildə Milli İnkişaf və Tənzimləmə Komissiyası, Sənaye və İnformasiya Nazirliyi, Ekologiya və Ətraf Mühit Nazirliyi, Milli Statistika Bürosu, milli qabaq çəkilməsi işini davam etdirəcəyini və milli qabaq çəkilməsinin il ərzində azalmasının təmin edilməsini təmin edəcəyini söylədi. Qabaq çəkilməsi yenidən bazarın mərkəzi məsələsi olub, müəllif qabaq çəkilməsi tərəfindən təchizat tərəfinin vəziyyəti barədə qısa bir şərh etdi.

2021 yılında ham çelik üretimi, eğilim öncesi yüksek ve sonrasında düşüktü.

2021年全国粗钢产量为10.35亿吨，同比下降2.8%，粗钢产量受到3千万吨的抑制。

2022 yılının ilk çeyreğinde ham çelik üretimi yıllık bazda düştü.

今年国内经济面临下行压力，在外部环境中，美联储进入加息周期，俄乌冲突、进口通胀引发商品原材料价格上涨等，内部环境面临需求收缩、供给冲击、“三重压力”预期以及新冠肺炎疫情防控难度加大等情况。数据显示，国家统计局公布的3月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为49.5%，下降0.7个百分点，首次陷入5个月来的收缩。在这种情况下，全国人大多次提到了稳增长。3月29日，全国人大明确表示将稳增长放在更加突出的位置，并部署利用政府债券扩大有效投资，推动板块短板增强力度，稳定经济增长。

88.3 million tons, 71.6 million tons, 116.89 million tons, 243.38 million tons

　　The decline in crude steel production in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2021 mainly stems from the following three points: First, crude steel production in 2021 showed a trend of high before and low after, and the production restriction mainly occurred in the second half of 2021, resulting in a high base in the beginning of 2021; secondly, February this year coincided with the period of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the neighboring areas took different degrees of production suspension and restriction measures; thirdly, the recurrence of epidemics led to the obstruction of logistics and transportation, especially some of the steel production and logistics industries, and the production of steel and steel was down by 3.3%. Especially part of the steel production and logistics industry focus on the region's regional control further led to the decline in crude steel production. It can be seen that the short-term pressure to reduce production is still available, the need for regulatory intervention is not great. In the medium and long term, with the gradual easing of the domestic epidemic, the 2nd and 3rd quarter crude steel production is likely to continue to rebound. If the 2nd and 3rd quarter average monthly production more than March production, then in order to achieve the annual crude steel production year-on-year decline in the target, the 4th quarter of the pressure to reduce production will come to the fore, superimposed on the environmental protection pressure of the heating season, when the regulatory layer or will be crude steel production direct intervention, but the introduction and implementation of policy will be relatively mild.

2022-nji yılın 1. çärlejinde, yyllyk datadan, bu ýylyň 1. çärlejindeki ham çelik üretimi geçen ýylyň şol dönemine nispeten aşak bolup, zencir datadan has köpüşler çykarylmaz. Milli Statistik Komitetiň maglumatlaryna görä, 2022-nji ýylyň mart aýynda, Hytaýň günde ortalama ham çelik üretimi 2,848,400 tonna, günde ortalama domuz demir üretimi 2,309,700 tonna we günde ortalama çelik üretimi 3,770,600 tonna boldy. Mart aýynda günde ortalama ham çelik üretimi geçen ýylyn şol dönemine nispeten aşak bolup, lakin 2021-nji ýylyň iyul aýyna çenli has ýokary derejäde ýerine ýetirildi, bu da göterýärki çelik zavodlarynyň üretimi umerli ýokary ýöneleşýän trendde.

根据上述，今年监管层减少粗钢产量任务的解读如下：首先，在疫情干扰、物流交通受阻、钢厂原材料库存不足的背景下，目前钢铁生产仅有轻微反弹，监管层直接干预的必要性不大；其次，根据研究数据统计，4月20日，河北省唐山市螺纹钢坯平均毛利16元/吨，电炉平均利润29元/吨。电炉平均利润29元/吨，钢厂主动增加生产意愿不强；第三，目前，平均日粗钢产量284.84万吨，较去年同期下降6.09%，低于去年最高值12.67%，基本持平于去年平均值（282.54万吨），即今年减产压力明显小于去年；第四，经历了去年粗钢产量和价格的大起大落，今年政策的引入和实施将更加温和，企业目前的生产节奏也留有实施的灵活性。

总的来说，目前国内经济下行压力大，疫情反复导致旺季延迟，市场整体呈现供需疲弱格局。中长期来看，为实现5.5%的年度经济增长目标，增长稳定政策将逐步落地，若国内疫情得到缓解，房地产行业反弹和基建支持，终端需求有望逐步恢复。基于此，我认为短期对市场的粗钢产量抑制作用有限。若中长期钢材需求能够有效改善，叠加粗钢产量抑制政策，钢价可能保持稳定向强势走势。从全年来看，整体减少粗钢产量的任务对钢铁更为有利，持中性更多观点，可低多布局。