Since December 2021, steel prices have been oscillating strong trend. December 28, 2021, shan steel marketing corporation futures department manager Qi Jianfeng said in an interview with the author: “this round of steel prices oscillating strong both iron ore prices steadily stronger cost support, but also the demand for marginal improvement in the favorable impact, but also thanks to the policy side of the favorable expectations. Expected early 2022 steel market supply and demand is basically stable, steel prices will show a narrow fluctuation trend.”

　　Qi Jianfeng pointed out in particular, “double stability” this tone boosted market confidence. December 8, 2021, the central economic work conference in the deployment of 2022 economic work, pointed out that: “next year's economic work should be stable, steady progress, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, the policy force appropriate forward.” On December 20, 2021, the National Industry and Information Technology Work Conference emphasized that in 2022, efforts should be made to boost the industrial economy, to provide strong support for the stabilization of the economy in general. Qi Jianfeng said that the launch of a series of policy combinations, boosting market confidence in a stable and strong economy.

　　Qi Jianfeng expects that the steel market fundamentals in early 2022 will be characterized by the following: the supply side of the low hovering. In November 2021, the national crude steel production reached 69.31 million tons, down 22% year-on-year, down 3.17% from the previous year. China Iron and Steel Industry Association statistics show that in mid-December 2021, the average daily crude steel production of key statistical iron and steel enterprises reached 1.8905 million tons, a decline of 2.66% from the ten-month period, a year-on-year drop of 14.13%; in mid- to early December, the average daily crude steel production of key statistical iron and steel enterprises reached 1.9124 million tons, an increase of 10.38% from the ten-month period, a year-on-year drop of 12.92%.

　　Qi Jianfeng is expected, with the completion of the task of crude steel production suppression, crude steel production in December 2021 may increase slightly, but year-on-year will still be a significant decline. Later by the heating season production restrictions, the Winter Olympics environmental restrictions and other factors, crude steel production will continue to maintain a low level.

　　Demand off-season is expected to improve. From the economic data in November 2021, the policy bottoming out effect appeared, a number of economic data slightly warmed up. Among them, the rate of decline in real estate investment narrowed significantly, and the rate of decline in the area of new real estate construction also narrowed, stabilizing market sentiment. Automobile, home appliances and other downstream industries have also warmed up. Although the five major steel varieties demand in the decline, but the rate of decline are narrowing. Qi Jianfeng said that, overall, off-season demand situation within the expected range, with the gradual policy force, the first quarter of 2022 demand will increase.

　　Raw material side to support the stabilization of steel prices. As of December 30, 2021, 62% grade imported iron ore Platts index price reached 117.3 U.S. dollars / ton, for nearly 1 month to maintain the momentum of oscillation. Qi Jianfeng introduction, the current level of iron ore stockpiles in the plant of steel enterprises is low, coupled with steel profits are at a relatively high level, there is a strong demand for iron ore to replenish the stockpile, iron ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate strong trend.

　　Jianfeng Qi said, looking ahead to the market, with the landing of favorable policies, the market is expected to improve, coupled with the continued strength of raw fuel prices, the steel prices to bring some support, but weak demand will still inhibit the steel prices rose sharply. Qi Jianfeng suggested that market participants should focus on the recent winter storage, the Winter Olympics environmental production restrictions, “double carbon” supporting policies and other impacts.